What You Need to Know Before the Market Opens - December 9, 2025

What to Know Before the Market Opens

As global markets focus on the upcoming Fed meeting, a weak atmosphere dominates the overall outlook of US indices. The S&P 500 closed the day down approximately 0.35%, while Nasdaq also recorded a slight decline. In this uncertain environment, there is also significant pressure on technology stocks; in particular, Oracle's (ORCL) earnings report and the Fed's decision at the end of the year are creating a cautious effect on investors.

Market Developments

While US President Trump's approval of the sale of AI chips like Nvidia's H200 to China increases risk, this situation could create a positive impact in the markets. The fact that a quarter of the revenue generated from the sale will be transferred to the US government stands out. Nvidia (NVDA) shares rose in after-hours trading, while news that Microsoft (MSFT) will progress with Broadcom on next-generation chip production has also boosted Broadcom (AVGO) shares.

Labor Market and Economic Indicators

With the reopening of the US government, disruptions in data flow are returning to normal. Today, the JOLTS job openings data will provide important information about the labor market. Additionally, there is an expectation that Thursday's unemployment claims will continue the trend of low layoffs. The annual increase in the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, PCE, is expected to remain below expectations, reinforcing the view that the interest rate cut process will continue cautiously.

Situation in European and Asian Markets

On the European side, a recovery in Germany's industrial production was observed in October. There is also a slight improvement in investor confidence in the Eurozone. In Asia, China's exports have gained momentum again after a temporary agreement with the US. The Chinese inflation data to be released this week is also expected to show a slight recovery. In Japan's BoJ meeting, the possibility of a 25 basis point hike is attracting attention.

Current Situation in Borsa Istanbul

Borsa Istanbul started the week with the agenda of interest rate cuts by the Fed and the TCMB, with an optimistic atmosphere prevailing in the early hours. The BIST 100 index closed up 1.65%. However, the sustainability of the current rise is crucial from a short-term perspective. Considering that the index struggles to stay above 11,200 points, breaking this level could increase the upward momentum.

Turkey's 5-year CDS premium remaining below 230 basis points could positively affect investor sentiment. It is thought that a 100-150 basis point cut is on the agenda for the TCMB's future meetings, which could create a perception that there is more room for easing in monetary policy.