Global grain stocks rise to a 25-year high!

IRFAN DONAT

The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations announced that the global grain stocks-to-use ratio is expected to rise to 31.8% in the 2025/26 season. This ratio represents the highest level seen since 2001.

Record Expectations in Grain Production

The FAO has increased its global grain production forecast by 0.7% (approximately 19.9 million tons), raising it to 3 billion 23 million tons. This increase supports previously anticipated record production expectations.

Wheat Production Peak

High wheat yields in Argentina, Canada, and the European Union have propelled world wheat production to a new all-time high. Global coarse grain production forecasts are also rising, aiming to reach new peaks.

Increase in Rice Production

The FAO has revised its rice production forecast for the 2025/26 season upward by 2.9 million tons, bringing it to 561.6 million tons. Most of this increase is coming from India.

Global Grain Use is Rising

The FAO expects global grain usage to rise by 2.2% to 2 billion 938 million tons in the 2025/26 season, which will be reflected in the increased use of corn, wheat, and barley.

Strengthening of Stocks Expected

The FAO forecasts that by the end of the 2026 season, global grain stocks will increase by 10.9 million tons, totaling 67.6 million tons (a 7.8% growth).

Grain Trade: Limited Increase Expectations

The FAO anticipates global grain trade will be 501.0 million tons in the 2025/26 period. Increases are expected in the trade of corn, wheat, and rice, although a 0.6% decline in rice compared to the previous year is forecasted.