JPMorgan's Minimum Wage and Economic Forecasts

Striking Predictions from JPMorgan for 2026

JPMorgan shared its forecasts in the latest report, predicting a 25% increase in the minimum wage in Turkey. This expectation is said to potentially have a significant impact on the markets.

2025 Will Be a Challenging Year

According to the report, the year 2025 will be challenging for Turkish companies. Slowing revenues and margin pressure are expected to lead to a 20% decline in real earnings. On the other hand, improvements in macroeconomic conditions are anticipated in 2026.

Consumer Demand Still Fragile

Analysts point out that consumer demand may still remain fragile throughout 2026. This situation, combined with the expectation of an increase in the minimum wage, could heighten uncertainties in the economy.

Turkey's Growth Forecast at 4.4%

The GDP of Turkey is expected to grow by 4.4% in 2026. This growth positions Turkey among the fastest-growing emerging economies when compared to Poland and Gulf countries in CEE and EMEA markets.

Minimum Wage Increase and Inflation

In the report, regarding the increase in the minimum wage, it is stated, "J.P. Morgan predicts a 25% increase in line with the expected 12-month inflation," which draws attention. This expectation has the potential to deeply affect market dynamics.