CBRT Survey: Year-End Inflation and Dollar Expectations Announced

TCMB Market Participants Survey Results

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) has announced the results of the November Market Participants Survey. In this survey, the participants' year-end inflation expectation for the current year has been determined as 32.2%. In the previous survey period, this rate was 31.77%, indicating an increase in inflation expectations.

Inflation Expectations for Future Years

The inflation expectation for 12 months ahead has risen to 23.49%, while this rate was recorded as 24.26% in the previous survey period. There is also a noted increase in long-term inflation expectations. The 24-month CPI expectation, which was 17.36% in the previous survey period, has reached 17.69% in this period.

Exchange Rate Expectations

The participants' year-end USD/TRY expectation has been determined as 43.42 TL in this survey period, compared to 43.56 TL in the previous survey period. The exchange rate expectation for 12 months ahead is forecasted to be 50.62 TL, which is a higher figure than the previous period's 49.75 TL. This situation is a significant development for investors.

Policy Interest Rate Expectation

Another important part of the survey is the expectations for the policy interest rate at the CBRT Monetary Policy Committee meeting expected to occur in December. Participants expect the interest rate to be at the level of 38.28%.

This information may help investors better understand the markets; however, the information presented here should not be considered as investment advice.