Market Critical Developments: What Does February 6 Bring for Investors?

Critical Developments in the Markets

In global markets, uncertainties stemming from geopolitical and monetary policy sources are prominent in recent days. The U.S. urging its citizens to leave the region due to the situation with Iran and the planned direct talks in Oman are among the main factors affecting risk perception.

Oil Prices and Diplomatic Contacts

Prior to the talks, there may be pressure on oil prices. WTI crude is approaching the $63 level, while Brent crude is trading below $68. Diplomatic engagements between the U.S.-Russia and U.S.-China are also causing fluctuations in geopolitical risks in the short term.

Unemployment and Fed Expectations

In the U.S., initial unemployment claims have risen to 231,000, exceeding expectations, which is being interpreted as a signal of slowing in the labor market. However, markets continue to price in the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in June.

Emphasis on Artificial Intelligence in Corporate Earnings

Aggressive capital expenditures focusing on artificial intelligence by major technology companies have not sufficiently reflected in profitability. Investors are shifting focus to sectors such as industry, healthcare, and services that can transform this technology into cost advantages, rather than directly investing in companies that produce artificial intelligence.

Europe and Interest Rate Expectations

The European Central Bank (ECB) opted to keep interest rates steady; the strengthening of the euro is being monitored in relation to exports and inflation. The Bank of England holding the rate at 3.75% is increasing expectations for a rate cut in the coming days.

BIST 100 Index and Investor Trends

The BIST 100 index closed with a notable decline of 2.17%, entering a clear correction process. The 13,300-13,400 band of the index stands out as critical support levels in the short term. Experts suggest that maintaining these levels could provide a healthy breather.

Current Situation and Expectations

A gradual increase of the dollar/TL is being observed in the foreign exchange market, with the upper resistance observed at the 43.60-44.00 band and the support in the 43.00-43.20 range. There is no significant data flow domestically today, and therefore, the markets are expected to focus on global developments and balance sheet-based stock movements.

In light of these developments, it is important for investors to adopt a cautious approach.