Current Status of Markets: What Are the Important Developments?

Current Situation in Markets

In global markets, a noticeable sector rotation is central to pricing behavior. While pressure continues on technology stocks, particularly software, the US stock indices completed the day with losses in the Nasdaq and S&P 500. Conversely, gains were observed in the Dow Jones and equal-weighted indices, indicating a shift in market distribution towards defensive and real sectors.

Sector Performance

Energy, materials, real estate, health, and consumer staples stocks have shown strong positive divergence, while technology, telecommunications, and discretionary consumer stocks displayed weak performance. The semiconductor sector remained under pressure from AMD (AMD), while Qualcomm's (QCOM) weak guidance post-earnings deepened the negative divergence in Nasdaq futures.

Macroeconomic Developments

The ADP private sector employment data released in the US showed an increase of only 22,000 in January, falling well below expectations. The postponement of non-farm payroll and CPI data due to the government's partial shutdown has continued to increase market sensitivity to Fed expectations.

Commodities and Geopolitical Risks

Geopolitical issues continue to impact commodity prices. Specifically, uncertainty surrounding the talks planned between the US and Iran on Friday led to fluctuations in oil prices, with gains subsequently given back as both sides confirmed the meeting. Attempts at recovery in precious metals following sharp sell-offs from record levels have not proven to be sustainable.

Global Outlook

Asian markets opened weakly due to a sharp pullback in silver, while the search for direction continues in US and European futures indices. The euro/dollar exchange rate is maintaining its balance around the 1.18 region, with the European Central Bank's interest rate decision poised to be decisive for the pair.

Domestically, the BIST 100 index finished the day with a limited increase despite profit-taking in banking stocks. Whether the index can maintain above the 13,400 level will continue to be monitored in the long term.

Conclusion

At the beginning of the year, the Istanbul Stock Exchange exhibited strong performance, though it has occasionally experienced volatility. However, the main trend is still upward, and investor interest remains vibrant. Despite short-term fluctuations, there are no clear signals indicating significant deterioration in the average outlook.