Market Situation Update: Fed and Data Flow Expectations

Current Market Situation: Expectations for the Fed and Data Flow

In the U.S., despite the federal government's reopening, the stagnation observed in the main indexes has led to a cautious stance in the markets. As uncertainties increase regarding possible decisions in the upcoming Fed meeting, investors are focused on upcoming data.

Market Expectations Before the Fed Meeting

Market participants are moving cautiously due to differing opinions on how the Fed might proceed at its meeting on December 9-10. Last week, FedWatch's expectations for interest rate cuts indicated that the likelihood of a new reduction in December has weakened following cuts in September and October. This week, evaluations from leading Fed members could be decisive for directional guidance. The non-farm payroll data for September, to be announced on Thursday, stands out as an important indicator.

Developments in the Technology Sector

Pressures in technology stocks are increasing investor concerns, while a significant movement in the markets is expected following the earnings report from Nvidia, a leader in artificial intelligence. Analysts expect a notable increase in profits over the third quarter, noting that the messages regarding demand and spending trends could significantly impact the market. Furthermore, data from retail giants such as Walmart and Home Depot will also be closely monitored.

European and Energy Markets

In Europe, the German government's announcement of new policies aimed at capping electricity costs for energy-intensive sectors and supporting SMEs has drawn attention. Meanwhile, oil prices have shown a decline following interruptions related to Ukraine, as shipments have resumed at Russia's Novorossiysk port.

Current Situation in Local Markets

The BIST 100 index has had a challenging week, attempting to hold in the 10,600-10,700 range with support at 10,370. However, a break below these levels could lead to a deeper correction in the markets. A short-term recovery effort is expected for this week; however, continued volatility in the markets is anticipated.

In conclusion, both global central bank communication and domestic factors continue to play a decisive role in investors' approaches. The uncertainty conditions and data flows in the markets will play a critical role in shaping investors' strategies.