Market Agenda for December 15: The First Things You Need to Know

Market Agenda for December 15

Global markets are displaying a mixed outlook as we enter December 15. In the U.S., attention is drawn to macro data and central bank messages following the Fed's latest interest rate cut. Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that the pace of job growth has slowed and that inflation has yet to reach the 2% target. In this context, markets are pricing in that the Fed's easing process is not over, but the pace of cuts may slow.

Recovery Efforts in U.S. Markets

Following last week's concerns regarding artificial intelligence, U.S. stock indices are starting the week with efforts for recovery. There is a positive outlook in index futures. Meanwhile, 10-year Treasury yields are stabilizing above 4.1%, and this week's non-farm payroll and CPI data will be critical determinants for the dollar's direction.

Energy and Trade Issues in Europe

On the European side, the European Central Bank (ECB) is not expected to make a change in interest rates this week. However, the focus is intensifying on trade negotiations and planned agreements with South America. The euro/dollar exchange rate has settled above 1.1650 following the Fed's decision, strengthening its medium-term outlook.

Increasing Demand for Precious Metals

The Fed's more dovish stance and geopolitical uncertainties are boosting demand for gold. The ounce of gold has settled above $4,300, maintaining its short-term upward trend. Sustaining above this level increases the potential for retesting historical peaks.

Technical Developments in Borsa Istanbul

In Borsa Istanbul, the BIST 100 index has surpassed significant technical levels due to interest rate cuts by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) and the soft messages conveyed by global central banks. The level of 11,160 is considered a resistance point of the descending channel. Breaking this level is seen as a positive signal for the continuation of the medium-term upward trend.

Currency Markets and Dollar/TL

In the currency market, Dollar/TL is showing an upward but controlled trend. Despite the CBRT's interest rate cuts, sudden movements in the exchange rate have been prevented due to its tight stance. In the short term, the level of 42.60 should be monitored as an important threshold.

Conclusion

All these developments are creating a cautiously optimistic sentiment in domestic markets, supported by interest rate cuts. However, it is likely that a volatile pricing process will continue due to the inflation outlook and global developments.