Global Coal Demand Reached Record Levels in 2023

Surprising Report from the International Energy Agency

The report titled 'Coal 2025' prepared by the International Energy Agency (IEA) reveals that global coal demand is set to reach 8.85 billion tons this year, marking a 0.5% increase and a new record.

Demand Trends and Regional Differences

Some key markets are showing unusual trends in coal consumption. In particular, due to high natural gas prices and policies that slow down the closure of coal plants, the U.S. experienced an increase after a 15-year decline in consumption.

In the European Union, a slight increase in coal demand is expected in 2023 following a decrease observed over the past two years. In China, coal demand is projected to remain stable in 2024.

Changes in Coal Demand by 2030

According to the report, global coal demand is expected to decline by 2030. This is anticipated as a result of changes in the energy sector, with a decrease in coal-fired electricity generation expected starting from 2026. However, coal demand in the industrial sector is expected to remain more resilient.

Growth Expectations in India and Southeast Asia

The largest increase in coal consumption is expected to occur in India, where demand is forecasted to rise annually by 3%, leading to an increase of over 200 million tons in total. Additionally, coal consumption in Southeast Asia is expected to grow by more than 4% annually until 2030.

Uncertainties Regarding the Future of Coal

IEA Director of Energy Markets and Security Keisuke Sadamori stated that they expect coal demand to remain stable until 2030 before starting to decline. However, he also emphasized that there are many uncertainties affecting the future of coal:

• Economic growth, policy preferences, and dynamics of the energy markets.
• The impact of weather conditions.