U.S. Cattle Supply at Lowest Level in 75 Years: Tyson Foods Expects Loss

Cattle Supply in the U.S. Hits Historic Low

The leading U.S. meat producer, Tyson Foods, announced that due to the cattle supply declining to its lowest level in 75 years, it expects a loss of between $250 million and $500 million in its beef segment for the fiscal year 2026 (ending in September).

Decline in Cattle Numbers and Rising Costs

According to a report by Bloomberg, Tyson Foods emphasized that the decrease in cattle numbers has increased raw material costs, significantly pressuring profitability. According to the company’s balance sheet, the loss in the beef unit was recorded at $319 million in the fourth quarter of 2025. However, profits continue to be made in other meat sectors such as chicken and pork.

Live Cattle Prices and Consumer Impact

Rising input costs are eroding the profit margins of meat processing companies while also putting upward pressure on consumer prices. For instance, beef prices increased by 16.4 percent in 2025. Data from Tyson and USDA forecasts that prices will not significantly decrease in the upcoming year.

Cost Pressures and Factory Closures

To cope with high cattle costs, Tyson decided to close one of its large facilities in Nebraska and reduced shifts at a facility in Texas. Rival firm JBS faced similar challenges and opted to close a beef processing facility in California.

USDA Reports and Weak Outlook Across the Sector

According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) cattle report, the cattle inventory declined from 86.5 million heads to 86.2 million heads in 2025. The number of replacement heifers increased by 1 percent compared to the previous year, but this increase is not seen as sufficient for the rapid rebuilding of the herd.

Increased Imports but Insufficient Price Decline

The U.S. increased beef imports to fill the cattle supply gap. According to USDA data, imports rose by 17 percent in 2025. However, the increased imports were not enough to lower prices in the domestic market.