Why Are Chocolate Prices High While Cocoa Prices Are Falling?

Expectations for Historical Cocoa Price Decline

After a price increase of 50% last year, cocoa prices are expected to experience their largest annual decline since 1960 this year. However, this does not mean that the prices of chocolates on supermarket shelves will immediately drop.

Experts' Predictions

According to a report by Bloomberg, it will take at least until the second half of 2026 for the decline in cocoa prices to be reflected to consumers. Due to bad weather conditions and diseases, the price per ton in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana, which supply more than half of the cocoa supply, reached record levels of 13,000 dollars last year. However, this year, with expectations for improved harvests and reduced demand, prices have fallen by approximately 50%.

Producers' High-Cost Stock Management

Despite the decline in prices, there are several reasons why retail chocolate prices remain high. Jonathan Parkman from Marex Group points out that the chocolate industry is still using products purchased at high prices. The German confectionery producer Lambertz stated that they secured their stocks during the period of peak prices, which allows them to produce using their cocoa until mid-2026.

Prices and Consumer Expectations

The decline in cocoa prices has not stopped producers from raising costs; many companies have made difficult changes to their recipes. The industry, from large food giants to boutique chocolatiers, is trying to find a balance between profit and loss. Therefore, a quick reduction in retail prices is not expected. Consumers continue to hope that chocolate will become an affordable treat again, while grappling with rising prices of essential food items like meat and coffee.