JPMorgan Predicts a 65% Increase in Bitcoin

JPMorgan analysts, examining Bitcoin's recent price movements, stated that it has a 65% potential for an increase within the next year. Furthermore, the U.S.-based investment bank forecasted that Bitcoin (BTC) could reach $170,000 within the next 6 to 12 months.

The team led by JPMorgan's strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou emphasized that this forecast is based on Bitcoin's role as “digital gold” and its historical value relationship with gold. The report mentions that recent declines were connected to the liquidation of highly leveraged positions in futures. However, the JPMorgan team stated that this deleveraging process has largely been completed and that a new upward momentum is beginning in the Bitcoin market.

According to analysts, Bitcoin is significantly “cheaper” in terms of risk capital compared to gold. According to JPMorgan's model, Bitcoin consumes 1.8 times more risk capital compared to gold. Considering this ratio, the $6.2 trillion directed by private investors towards gold is quite striking. If a similar amount is invested in Bitcoin, at about two-thirds to one-third of that, the BTC price could reach $170,000.

Currently, Bitcoin's market value is recorded at approximately $2.1 trillion, while its current price is around $102,000. JPMorgan noted that with the increasing volatility of gold, Bitcoin has become a more attractive hedging instrument against stock risk, while emphasizing that despite the reserve constraints in the U.S. banking system, the overall money supply and bankless liquidity continue to grow. This situation is said to support risky assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies.

JPMorgan's evaluations suggest that by the end of 2024, Bitcoin is in a rebalancing phase of its price compared to a period when it traded above the model. The bank particularly stressed that its forecasts are based on “mechanical calculations, not speculation.” For investors, critical points to monitor and the potential for transformation in Bitcoin remain significant in the upcoming period.