post-FED Bitcoin Movements: Downside Risks Continue

In recent days, the volatility observed in Bitcoin prices has been narrowing significantly following the FED's latest Monetary Policy Meeting (FOMC). According to Glassnode data, expected price movements in the crypto options market are decreasing, and investors are taking a cautious stance against downside risks. Following the announcement of the FOMC decisions, it is seen that the pricing of uncertainty in the crypto market has receded.

According to the data shared by Glassnode, implied volatility in the options market is rapidly tightening, while investors' expectations for significant price fluctuations have also been pulled down. Following the meeting, implied volatility (ATM) levels for one week to six months have shown a decline. This situation indicates that smaller price movements are being priced in the options market.

With the main catalyst in the monetary policy side disappearing, it is observed that the uncertainty premium is quickly dissolving. The Dolaşan İki Değerli Volatilite (DVOL) indicator, which reflects the overall implied volatility of the market, has shown a significant decline after the FOMC. Such sudden drops signify that the need for hedging in the market has decreased and that the demand for urgent protection or aggressive bullish positions has weakened.

However, the 25 Delta Skew data indicates that the defensive stance in the options market has not completely disappeared. The skew ratio is around 10 percent, and it is noteworthy that put options are still priced higher compared to call options. This situation reveals that despite the decrease in volatility, demand for downside risk remains strong. Glassnode's Skew Index data also confirms that a cautious outlook is still prevailing in the short term.

Additionally, while negative values have been observed in one-week and one-month maturities, it is noteworthy that upside risks are being priced for longer dates in three and six-month maturities. Lastly, the put/call ratio has been on an upward trend for weeks, and approximately 60 percent of taker transactions are concentrated in put options, clearly demonstrating that the desire for short-term protection is still dominant in the market. Investors should carefully monitor this outlook.