Large Expiration: $27 Billion in BTC and ETH Contracts

Large Expiration: $27 Billion in BTC and ETH Contracts

Cryptocurrency markets are experiencing a remarkable moment today with the expiration of over $27 billion in Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) options on Deribit. This amount represents more than half of the total open interest of the derivatives exchange. This expiration, occurring on the last Friday of the month and the year, has a significantly higher trading volume compared to the previous week's data.

Key Data

In today's options agenda, expired Bitcoin options account for $23.6 billion, while Ethereum makes up $3.8 billion. Under current market conditions, Bitcoin is trading around $89,000 and Ethereum at approximately $2,976.

Market Trends and Maximum Pain

Call options are trading nearly one-third more than put options, indicating a notable bullish trend among investors. The maximum pain levels for options are shaping up around $95,000 for Bitcoin and $3,000 for Ethereum. These levels are defined as the points at which option sellers can maximize their profit while buyers may face the most significant losses.

Market Reactions and Volatility

Deribit indicates that this expiration encompasses more than 50% of the total open interest on the exchange. They state, "Post-expiration flows will be more important than the price. Monitor positions closely. How will the market react to such a large expiration?" The volatility index (DVOL) has dropped from 63% in November to around 42% today, reducing the likelihood of panic-induced fluctuations.

Impacts on 2026

Nevertheless, a expiration process that could have decisive effects for 2026 awaits us. The flows resulting from the expiration could influence market direction, potentially easing upward resistance. Today's options agenda presents an extraordinary situation that offers both opportunities and risks for investors.

In conclusion, large expirations in the cryptocurrency world always have significant effects. Preparing for potential trend shifts in 2026 may enable investors to take a strategic step.