Bitcoin Price: What Do CME and Glassnode Data Indicate?

Bitcoin (BTC) has remained in a sideways trend in the range of $80,000–$90,000 throughout December after reaching record levels in October. However, CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) futures data and Glassnode on-chain indicators suggest that Bitcoin hasn't sufficiently consolidated in the $70,000–$80,000 range, revealing it to be a weak support area.

The last five years of CME Bitcoin futures data clearly show how long the price has stayed within certain bands, highlighting that only 28 trading days were spent in the $70,000–$79,999 range. This makes the said band one of the least tested price ranges, excluding brief trades above historical peaks. On the other hand, the number of days spent in the $80,000–$89,999 band is limited to just 49. In comparison, there are about 200 trading days in the $30,000–$40,000 and $40,000–$50,000 ranges.

These data clearly indicate that price levels at lower ranges have been much more consolidated, thus providing structurally stronger support. The UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) data provided by Glassnode also supports this situation. URPD shows at what price levels the current Bitcoin supply last moved, revealing that the concentrated supply in the $70,000–$80,000 band is quite limited.

When considering both CME futures data and on-chain indicators together, a potential new correction suggests that the $70,000–$80,000 range could be a region where the price needs to linger longer. This process may be critical for the market to establish new positions at these levels and build a stronger support structure.