Bitcoin Price: What Do CME and Glassnode Data Indicate?

Bitcoin (BTC) has shown a sideways movement in the range of $80,000–$90,000 throughout December after reaching record levels in October. However, CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) futures data and Glassnode on-chain indicators reveal that Bitcoin has not sufficiently consolidated in the $70,000–$80,000 range and that this area serves as a weak support zone.

The last five years of CME Bitcoin futures data clearly show how long prices have remained in certain bands, with only 28 trading days recorded in the $70,000–$79,999 range. This situation makes the mentioned band one of the least tested price ranges when excluding short-term trades above historical peaks. In contrast, the number of days spent in the $80,000–$89,999 band was limited to just 49. By comparison, there are approximately 200 trading days in the $30,000–$40,000 and $40,000–$50,000 ranges.

These data clearly indicate that lower price levels have been much more consolidated, thus providing structurally stronger support. The UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) data presented by Glassnode also supports this situation. The URPD shows at what price levels the current Bitcoin supply has moved last, revealing that the supply concentrated in the $70,000–$80,000 band is quite limited.

When both CME futures data and on-chain indicators are evaluated together, a potential new correction scenario suggests that the $70,000–$80,000 range could be an area where the price needs to linger longer. This process may be critical for the market to form new positions at these levels and build a stronger support structure.