Bitcoin Price: What Do CME and Glassnode Data Indicate?

Bitcoin(BTC) exhibited a sideways trend in the $80,000–$90,000 range throughout December, following record levels reached in October. However, CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) futures data and Glassnode on-chain indicators reveal that Bitcoin has not sufficiently consolidated in the $70,000–$80,000 range, indicating that this area represents a weak support zone.

The past five years of CME Bitcoin futures data clearly demonstrate how long the price has remained within specific bands, showing that only 28 trading days were spent in the $70,000–$79,999 range. This situation makes the band one of the least tested price ranges, apart from short-term trades above the historical peaks. In contrast, the number of days spent in the $80,000–$89,999 band is limited to just 49. Comparatively, there are approximately 200 trading days in the $30,000–$40,000 and $40,000–$50,000 ranges.

This data clearly shows that price levels at lower ranges have been consolidated much more, thus providing a structurally more robust support. The UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) data presented by Glassnode also supports this situation. URPD indicates the last price levels at which the current Bitcoin supply moved, revealing that the supply concentrated in the $70,000–$80,000 band is quite limited.

When analyzing both CME futures data and on-chain indicators together, it suggests that in the case of a possible new correction, the $70,000–$80,000 range could be an area where the price needs to linger for a longer time. This process could be critical for the market to establish new positions at these levels and build a stronger support structure.