Bitcoin Price: What Do CME and Glassnode Data Indicate?

Bitcoin (BTC) has exhibited a sideways movement in the range of $80,000–$90,000 throughout December, following the record levels it reached in October. However, CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) futures data and Glassnode on-chain indicators reveal that Bitcoin has not sufficiently consolidated in the $70,000–$80,000 range, indicating that this area is a weak support zone.

The last five years of CME Bitcoin futures data clearly show how long the price has remained within specific bands, with only 28 trading days noted in the $70,000–$79,999 range. This situation makes this band one of the least tested price ranges when excluding short-term trades above historical peaks. In contrast, the number of days spent in the $80,000–$89,999 band is limited to just 49. Comparatively, there are about 200 trading days in the $30,000–$40,000 and $40,000–$50,000 ranges.

This data clearly indicates that the lower price levels have consolidated much more and therefore offer structurally more robust support. Additionally, the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) data provided by Glassnode supports this situation. URPD shows at what price levels the current Bitcoin supply last moved and reveals that the supply concentrated in the $70,000–$80,000 band is quite limited.

When both CME futures data and on-chain indicators are evaluated together, the possibility of a new correction suggests that the $70,000–$80,000 range may be an area where the price needs to linger longer. This process could be critical for the market to establish new positions at these levels and build a stronger support structure.