Bitcoin Price: What Do CME and Glassnode Data Indicate?

Bitcoin (BTC) has exhibited a sideways movement within the $80,000–$90,000 range throughout December, following the record levels it reached in October. However, CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) futures data and Glassnode on-chain indicators suggest that Bitcoin has not sufficiently consolidated within the $70,000–$80,000 range, indicating that this area serves as a weak support zone.

The past five years of CME Bitcoin futures data clearly show how long the price has remained within certain bands, with only 28 trading days spent in the $70,000–$79,999 range. This situation makes the mentioned band one of the least tested price ranges, excluding short-term trades above historical peaks. Meanwhile, the number of days spent in the $80,000–$89,999 band is limited to just 49. In comparison, approximately 200 trading days can be found in the $30,000–$40,000 and $40,000–$50,000 ranges.

These data clearly indicate that price regions at lower levels have consolidated much more and therefore provide structurally stronger support. The UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) data presented by Glassnode also supports this situation. URPD shows at what price levels the current Bitcoin supply has moved last, revealing that the supply concentrated in the $70,000–$80,000 band is quite limited.

When both CME futures data and on-chain indicators are evaluated together, a potential new correction scenario suggests that the $70,000–$80,000 range might be an area where the price needs to linger longer. This process could be critical for the market to establish new positions at these levels and build a stronger support structure.