Bitcoin Price: What Do CME and Glassnode Data Indicate?

Bitcoin (BTC) has followed a sideways trend in the $80,000–$90,000 range throughout December after reaching record levels in October. However, CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) futures data and Glassnode on-chain indicators suggest that Bitcoin has not sufficiently consolidated in the $70,000–$80,000 range, indicating that this area serves as a weak support zone.

Over the last five years, CME Bitcoin futures data clearly shows how long the price has remained within specific bands. Notably, it is highlighted that only 28 trading days were spent in the $70,000–$79,999 range. This makes this band, excluding short-term trades above historical peaks, one of the least tested price ranges. In contrast, the number of days spent in the $80,000–$89,999 range is limited to only 49. Comparatively, there are approximately 200 trading days in the $30,000–$40,000 and $40,000–$50,000 ranges.

These data clearly indicate that the lower price levels have been more heavily consolidated, and thus structurally provide much stronger support. The UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) data presented by Glassnode also supports this situation. URPD shows at which price levels the current Bitcoin supply has most recently moved, indicating that the supply concentrated in the $70,000–$80,000 range is quite limited.

When both CME futures data and on-chain indicators are evaluated together, a potential new correction scenario suggests that the $70,000–$80,000 range might be a region where the price needs to hover for a longer period. This process could be critical for the market to establish new positions at these levels and build a stronger support structure.