Bitcoin Price: What Do CME and Glassnode Data Indicate?

Bitcoin (BTC), after reaching record levels in October, has exhibited sideways movement in the range of $80,000–$90,000 throughout December. However, CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) futures data and Glassnode on-chain indicators reveal that Bitcoin has not sufficiently consolidated in the $70,000–$80,000 range, indicating it as a weak support area.

Analysis of the last five years of CME Bitcoin futures data clearly shows how long the price has spent in specific ranges, highlighting that only 28 trading days were spent in the $70,000–$79,999 range. This makes the band one of the least tested price ranges, excluding short-term trades above historical peaks. In contrast, the number of days spent in the $80,000–$89,999 range is limited to just 49. In comparison, there are approximately 200 trading days in the $30,000–$40,000 and $40,000–$50,000 ranges.

This data clearly indicates that lower price regions have been much more consolidated and therefore provide structurally stronger support. Glassnode's UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) data also supports this situation. URPD shows at which price levels the current Bitcoin supply was last traded, revealing that the concentration of supply in the $70,000–$80,000 band is quite limited.

When CME futures data and on-chain indicators are considered together, they suggest that in the event of a new correction, the $70,000–$80,000 range could be a region where the price needs to linger longer. This process could be crucial for the market to establish new positions at these levels and build a stronger support structure.