Bitcoin Price: What Do CME and Glassnode Data Indicate?

Bitcoin (BTC) has shown a sideways movement in the band of $80,000–$90,000 throughout December, following the record levels reached in October. However, CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) futures data and Glassnode on-chain indicators reveal that Bitcoin has not sufficiently consolidated in the $70,000–$80,000 range, indicating that this area is a weak support zone.

The last five years of CME Bitcoin futures data clearly show how long the price remained within certain bands, with only 28 trading days spent in the $70,000–$79,999 range. This situation makes the specified band one of the least tested price ranges, except for brief trades above historic peaks. In contrast, the number of days spent in the $80,000–$89,999 band is limited to just 49. By comparison, there are about 200 trading days in the $30,000–$40,000 and $40,000–$50,000 ranges.

These data clearly indicate that the lower price areas have been much more consolidated, and therefore provide structurally stronger support. The UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) data presented by Glassnode also supports the situation. URPD shows at which price levels the current Bitcoin supply has last moved, revealing that the supply concentrated in the $70,000–$80,000 range is quite limited.

When considering both CME futures data and on-chain indicators, a potential new correction suggests that the $70,000–$80,000 range could be an area where the price needs to linger longer. This process could be critical for the market to establish new positions at these levels and build a stronger support structure.