Bitcoin Price: What Do CME and Glassnode Data Indicate?

Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading sideways in the range of $80,000–$90,000 throughout December after reaching record levels in October. However, data from the CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) futures market and Glassnode on-chain indicators reveal that Bitcoin has not sufficiently consolidated in the $70,000–$80,000 range, indicating that this area is a weak support level.

The last five years of CME Bitcoin futures data clearly show how long prices have remained within certain bands, highlighting that only 28 trading days were spent in the $70,000–$79,999 range. This situation makes the aforementioned band one of the least tested price ranges when excluding short-term trades above historical peaks. In contrast, the number of days spent in the $80,000–$89,999 band is limited to just 49. In comparison, there are approximately 200 trading days in the $30,000–$40,000 and $40,000–$50,000 ranges.

This data clearly indicates that price regions at lower levels have consolidated much more significantly, thus structurally providing stronger support. The UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) data provided by Glassnode further supports this situation. URPD shows at what price levels the current Bitcoin supply has last moved, revealing that there is quite limited supply concentrated in the $70,000–$80,000 band.

When considering both CME futures data and on-chain indicators together, it suggests that a potential new correction may mean that the $70,000–$80,000 range could be a zone where the price needs to linger longer. This process could be critical for the market to establish new positions at these levels and build a stronger support structure.