Bitcoin Price: What Do CME and Glassnode Data Indicate?

Bitcoin (BTC) has shown a sideways trend in the $80,000–$90,000 range throughout December, following the record levels it reached in October. However, CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) futures data and Glassnode on-chain indicators reveal that Bitcoin has not sufficiently consolidated in the $70,000–$80,000 range, which appears to be a weak support area.

The last five years of CME Bitcoin futures data clearly show how long the price has remained in certain bands, noting that only 28 trading days have been spent in the $70,000–$79,999 range. This situation makes the specified band one of the least tested price ranges, excluding short-term trades above historical peaks. In contrast, the number of days spent in the $80,000–$89,999 range is limited to only 49. In comparison, there are approximately 200 trading days in the $30,000–$40,000 and $40,000–$50,000 ranges.

These data clearly indicate that the price regions at lower levels have consolidated much more extensively, thus providing structurally stronger support. The UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) data presented by Glassnode further supports this situation. URPD shows at which price levels the current Bitcoin supply last moved, revealing that the supply concentrated in the $70,000–$80,000 range is quite limited.

When both CME futures data and on-chain indicators are evaluated together, the potential for a new correction suggests that the $70,000–$80,000 range could be a region where the price needs to linger longer. This process may be critically important for the market to establish new positions at these levels and build a stronger support structure.