Bitcoin Price: What Do CME and Glassnode Data Indicate?

Bitcoin (BTC) has displayed a sideways trend between $80,000 and $90,000 throughout December, following the record levels it reached in October. However, CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) futures data and Glassnode on-chain indicators reveal that Bitcoin has not adequately consolidated in the $70,000–$80,000 range, indicating that this area represents a weak support zone.

The last five years of CME Bitcoin futures data clearly show how long the price has remained within specific bands, with only 28 trading days spent in the $70,000–79,999 range. This situation renders this band one of the least tested price ranges, excluding short-term trades above historical peaks. Meanwhile, the number of days spent in the $80,000–89,999 range is limited to just 49. In comparison, there are approximately 200 trading days in the $30,000–40,000 and $40,000–50,000 ranges.

These data clearly indicate that price regions at lower levels have consolidated much more significantly, thereby structurally providing stronger support. The UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) data provided by Glassnode further supports this situation. URPD shows the price levels at which the current Bitcoin supply last moved, revealing that the supply concentrated in the $70,000–80,000 range is quite limited.

When considering both CME futures data and on-chain indicators together, the possibility of a new correction suggests that the $70,000–80,000 range might be a zone where the price needs to linger longer. This process could be critical for the market in establishing new positions at these levels and constructing a more robust support structure.