Bitcoin Price: What CME and Glassnode Data Tell Us?

Bitcoin (BTC) has shown a sideways trend between the $80,000-$90,000 band throughout December after reaching record levels in October. However, CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) futures data and Glassnode on-chain indicators reveal that Bitcoin has not sufficiently consolidated in the $70,000-$80,000 range and that this zone represents a weak support area.

The last five years of CME Bitcoin futures data clearly show how long the price has remained within certain bands, notably highlighting that there were only 28 trading days spent in the $70,000-$79,999 range. This situation makes the aforementioned band one of the least tested price ranges when excluding short-term trades at historical peaks. Furthermore, the number of days spent in the $80,000-$89,999 band has been limited to just 49. In comparison, there have been approximately 200 trading days in the $30,000-$40,000 and $40,000-$50,000 ranges.

These data clearly indicate that the lower price levels have been consolidated much more, therefore offering a structurally stronger support. The UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) data presented by Glassnode also supports this situation. URPD indicates the levels at which the current Bitcoin supply last moved, revealing that the supply concentrated in the $70,000-$80,000 band is quite limited.

When considering both CME futures data and on-chain indicators together, the possibility of a new correction suggests that the $70,000-$80,000 range may be an area in which the price needs to linger longer. This process could hold critical importance for the market to establish new positions at these levels and to build a stronger support structure.