Global Oil Demand Will Reach Record Levels in 2025

Developments in the Global Oil Market

Brent oil closed the past week with positive performance amid rising geopolitical concerns and significant developments related to supply-demand balances. In particular, the increase in crude oil stocks in the US exerted downward pressure on prices, while port attacks in Ukraine and tensions in the Middle East helped to balance this situation.

OPEC's Demand Forecast

According to a statement from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the global oil demand forecast for 2025 is expected to reach 105 million 140 thousand barrels per day. This figure is a significant indicator that could change the balances in the oil market. OPEC also announced that it increased crude oil production by 33 thousand barrels last October, reaching a total of 28 million 460 thousand barrels.

US Stock Increase and Its Impact on Prices

In the US, the world's largest oil consumer, commercial crude oil stocks increased by approximately 6 million 400 thousand barrels last week, reaching 427 million 600 thousand barrels, which strengthened concerns about supply surplus in the market. Market analysts expect that this increase could create downward pressure on prices. Contrary to expectations, the stock increase was thought to be limited to 1 million 700 thousand barrels.

Geopolitical Concerns and Market Dynamics

The Russia-Ukraine War continues to increase uncertainties in global energy supply. According to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov's statements, despite Russia's desire for peace, following Ukraine's closure of negotiation doors, it was expressed that "special military operations" would continue. Additionally, the drone attack on the oil depot at Ukraine's Novorossiysk Port deepened supply concerns, creating a supporting factor for upward movements in prices.