January 19 Market: Geopolitical Risks and Gold Prices

Market Agenda for January 19

As of January 19, uncertainties in geopolitical and trade policies are prominent in global markets. President Trump's stance on Greenland and the threat of additional tariffs on some European countries have increased trade tensions between the US and the EU.

US-EU Trade Tensions

The European Union has decided to hold an emergency meeting to evaluate retaliatory measures against these threats from the US. Following these developments, US index futures have begun the new week with a downward gap, while investors' tendency to avoid risk is expected to turn towards precious metals.

Commodity Market Fluctuations

The rise in geopolitical risk perception has pushed gold and silver prices to new highs, although there are fluctuations over time due to profit realizations. Additionally, China's economy showed growth close to expectations in the last quarter, but the cautious trend in domestic demand is noteworthy.

US Economy and Fed Policy

Despite the US economic activity remaining resilient and inflation being close to target levels, the Fed's cautious stance is being closely monitored by investors. Uncertainties regarding the Fed presidency can create volatility in the markets.

Oil Prices and Currency Analysis

In the markets, a decline in oil prices has been observed, attributed to alleviated supply concerns from Iran and Venezuela. However, it is noted that the geopolitical risk premium has not completely disappeared. The USD/TRY exhibits an upward trend in line with global dollar movements, while the euro/dollar parity remains under pressure in favor of the dollar.

BIST 100 Index Performance

The BIST 100 index of the Istanbul Stock Exchange has reached its historical peak with strong performance. High trading volume supports this rise, while losses in the trade sector are noteworthy. If it maintains stability above the 12,600 level, the index is expected to test the 12,700, 12,800, and 12,900 levels.

Macroeconomic Expectations

The ongoing disinflation process and the expectation that the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) will implement a 150 basis point interest rate cut positively affect the market. Additionally, the rating evaluations by Fitch and Moody’s will be closely monitored.

Conclusion and Forecasts

In this environment of increasing global uncertainties, although the Istanbul Stock Exchange is differentiating with strong dynamics, both international and local factors will have an impact on pricing in the coming days.