November 18: Market Dynamics and Important Perspectives for Investors

Pre-Market Assessment

Although November is generally associated with optimism, this year global stock markets are showing notable fluctuations. While major indexes are striving to reach new highs, investors' expectations for a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Fed in the December meeting have declined from around 60% to 40%.

Risk Appetite in US Markets

The interruptions in data flow following a long closure period have led to a cautious stance on Wall Street. In particular, the employment report for September, to be released this Thursday, stands out as a critical indicator for both the Fed’s policy-making process and investor sentiment.

S&P 500 and Sectoral Losses

On the first trading day of the week, 380 stocks in the S&P 500 ended the day in the red, indicating widespread losses, particularly in the technology and banking sectors. Comments from Fed officials are among the factors negatively impacting interest rate cut expectations.

Nvidia's Financials and AI Investments

The financial results of retail giants and Nvidia's earnings report, to be disclosed on Wednesday, are likely to be decisive factors for US indexes. Nvidia's strengthened position within the S&P 500 raises significant curiosity about how the company’s balance sheet might impact technology valuations and AI themes; meeting expectations could curb recent profit-taking, while weak figures could increase pressure.

Weak Outlook in Asian Markets

Asian markets are also showing a weak outlook following the selling waves in the US. The monetary policy meeting in Japan and the government's low-interest rate stance negatively affect the regional economic risk perception. Additionally, a significant decline in risk appetite has been observed in Chinese markets.

Borsa Istanbul and Local Developments

Borsa Istanbul has maintained an upward outlook by holding 10,600 levels. Testing the 10,700 resistance is significant for the initiation of a new upward trend in the short term. The rating actions taken by Fitch in the banking sector have received a positive response in the market. The upgrades in the ratings of major banks, particularly Halkbank, Vakıfbank, and TSKB, could positively impact the sectoral outlook.

Future Predictions

For investors, maintaining the support at 10,600 levels is critically important for short-term positions. The primary weekly support point is observed at the 10,370 level. Gold prices continue to decline amid the strengthening dollar and the Fed's cautious stance.