Expectations for a 150 Basis Point Interest Rate Cut by the CBT are Increasing

Expectations on Turkey's Interest Rate Policy

The results of the December interest rate survey conducted by Bloomberg HT, which involved 19 financial institutions, have been announced. The market expects the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) to reduce the policy interest rate by 150 basis points from %39.5 to %38 in the meeting scheduled for December 11.

Differences in Interest Rate Predictions

In the survey conducted, the lowest policy interest rate estimate for December was determined to be %38, while the highest estimate was %38.5. These results were shaped according to the median predictions of the participants.

Interest Rate Expectations for Year-End 2026

The interest rate prediction for year-end 2026 by market participants points to a level of %28. Among the participants, the highest expectation was recorded at %32, while the lowest estimate was %26.

Compared to previous surveys, the interest rate expectation for the policy interest in the December survey of 2024 was at %31 for the year 2025.