TCMB Adjusted December Inflation Forecast Downward.

Unexpected Decline Signals in December Inflation from the Central Bank of Turkey

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB) shared the summary of its Monetary Policy Committee (PPK) meeting held on December 11, 2023, with the public. At the meeting, a 150 basis points reduction in the policy rate was implemented.

Positive Trend in Food Prices Continues

The meeting summary indicates that leading indicators expect the positive trend observed in food prices in November to persist in December. It was noted that while prices of fresh fruits and vegetables in the unprocessed food category decreased, the increase in red meat prices partially limited this positive situation.

Developments in Processed Food and Energy Prices

It was emphasized that the gradual slowing trend in processed food inflation continued and that energy prices remained relatively stable due to the correction in fuel prices.

Expectations of Decline in Basic Goods and Services Prices

The summary stated, "Leading indicators imply milder price increases in basic goods and services groups in December compared to the previous month. It is also expected that the main trend indicators will continue to show a declining trend in December."