TAV Airports Holding A.S. (TAVHL) aims to surpass the heavy loss of the first quarter with financial results to be announced in the second quarter of 2025. The company in the first three months of the year TL 1.73 billion net loss disclosed, and this situation had seriously affected investor perception. The 2Q25 balance sheet, which is expected to be released on July 29, 2025, will give important signals on the recovery process of the TAVHL.

Business Investment Forecast: Revenue Growth Strong, Profit Margin Limited

The institution that announced the first expectation report for TAV was Business Investment. The institution is in the second quarter of 2025 of the company Revenue: 20.146 billion TL and 6.137 billion TL EBITDA He predicted he would get it. Accordingly, operational profitability presents a strong outlook. But the net profit expectation 606 million TL With, turnover and EBITDA remain quite limited considering the size.

This table shows the impact of high fixed expenses, depreciation and foreign exchange debt burden on net profit. Euro-based indebtedness, in particular, continues to file net profits with the effect of interest rates. On the other hand, the fact that the company derives its revenues from euro-based airport operating contracts provides some protection against TL-based fluctuations.

Increase in Passenger Numbers Supports Revenues

In the first half of 2025, the recovery in airport operations accelerated. The total number of passengers at airports operated by TAV increased, especially in Antalya, Medina and Tbilisi. Growth in international passengers, in particular, supported both duty-free revenues and airport operating revenues. This trend may reflect positively on TAV's financial results in the second quarter, in which TAV had a strong seasonality.

Is the transition to profit enough?

The return to net profit after the first quarter, in which Tavhl suffered losses, can be welcomed. However, the size of this transition may not be entirely convincing to the investor when assessed against the turnover of TL 20 billion. The net profit margin of around 3% points to a rather limited profit structure, due to the impact of volatility in the sector, foreign exchange burden and operational costs. Therefore, the company is expected to offer sustainable profitability capacity, not just quarterly profit.

Stock Technical Outlook and Prospects

The pre-balance sheet TAVHL share is priced in the 100 TL band and has a floating movement in the range of 95—105 TL. Pricing on the stock appears to be largely focused on balance sheet expectations. What matters to institutional investors will not only be net profit, but also how parameters such as debt/equity ratio, foreign exchange position and new contracts evolve.

In general terms, TAV Airports' 2Q25 balance sheet may be the beginning of psychological recovery after losses. But unless permanent solutions to structural problems are offered, it may take time for the company to regain investor confidence.