Target Stock Remains at 52-Week Low Level

Target Corp. (TGT) continues to disappoint investors as we enter the holiday quarter. On October 10, the stock hit a 52-week low of $85.53 and has only seen a modest recovery since that day. Meanwhile, broader markets are reaching record highs. The stock has lost 31% of its value since the beginning of the year, lagging behind the S&P 500's 16% gain and rival Walmart (WMT)'s 12% increase.

There are many reasons for the decline in Target's stock price. Notably, there have been observed deficiencies in execution regarding pricing strategies in stores and fresh food inventory over the past year. This has been reflected in financial results and does not inspire much confidence in the transformation process.

Walmart continues to outperform Target across all categories. Walmart's success stands out in many areas such as growth in store sales and an increase in online sales. During the second quarter, Walmart's sales increased 4.6%, while Target experienced a 1.9% decline. In terms of online sales, Walmart saw a 26% increase, whereas Target only reported a 4.3% growth. Additionally, while Walmart raised its sales outlook, Target merely reiterated its guidance for the year.

Another issue is the lack of confidence in the company's new CEO. Target announced that it would appoint Michael Fiddelke as CEO on February 1, 2026, replacing Brian Cornell, who has served in this role since August 2014. Fiddelke, who has risen through the ranks at Target since joining as an intern in 2003, has served as CFO and COO.

Fiddelke will need to quickly resolve a series of issues to compete with Walmart, grocery chains, and Amazon (AMZN). As retail expert Jeff Macke puts it, "Target needs momentum."

Recently, Fiddelke's announcement of 1,800 layoffs to demonstrate that he is not in the same mold as Cornell has come under criticism. Corey Tarlowe commented that this move is aimed at achieving financial discipline with Fiddelke stepping into the CEO role.

Additionally, Target continues to battle with Trump's tariffs and cautious U.S. consumers. Approximately 50% of the cost of goods sold by the company consists of imported products. Consumer caution has led to negative expectations from discretionary spending companies like Chipotle (CMG) in recent weeks.

JPMorgan analyst Christopher Horvers expressed concerns by saying, "We are worried about what will happen after the consumer sentiment period; consumers need to digest rapidly rising goods inflation. Target experiences the most episodic shopping experiences due to the diversity it offers."

This weakness in consumer spending may also affect the third-quarter results that Target will announce later this month. Citi analyst Paul Lejuez stated, "We believe market expectations are low, but weak sales will be more significant."

Investors are not expecting much success from Target in the near term. According to Yahoo Finance data, annual earnings per share estimates are drifting below the low end of the range that Target has guided.