The Silence Before the Storm Beneath: What Could Happen in the Second Half of 2025

The year 2025 is not only an investment story for gold, but also a crisis scenario that keeps the global economy on the pulse. Developments in the first six months allowed ounces of gold to soar above $3,300. Now, however, a strange silence reigns in the market. Investors do not know what step to take on the dark and uncertain paths of the second half.

The year began in the lap of fear of high inflation and recession. As world leaders threaten each other with tariffs, the US President's harsh pronouncements and economic sanctions on China have made global trade difficult. All these tensions have pushed the investor to look for an exit door: Gold. The search for safe harbor turned into a violent orientation as of the first quarter. During the same period, a broken ceasefire in Gaza and escalating diplomatic uncertainties along the Russia-Ukraine line drove gold up to $3,499 an ounce.

The Balance-Busting Move: Central Banks at the Table

The turbulence in the markets also forced central banks to take new positions. Reserve strategies around the world have been rewritten. Major economies that had previously concentrated on US bonds wanted to avoid systemic risk by shifting their portfolios to the bottom. This quiet but forceful move set in motion another scenario that supported gold prices. The sharp retreat that began at the same time in the dollar index accelerated the trend towards gold. When the index, which closed 2024 at 108.5, soon retreated to 96 levels, the gold investor sensed a historic opportunity.

Act Two Opens: The Shadow Game Begins

Now, however, a new curtain is being drawn in the wake of that stormy rise. The prospect of easing global risks, negotiations at the diplomatic tables and vague but dovish signals from the Fed have prompted a search for balance in the market. Although gold has gained 26% to its investor in the first half, experts point out that a period of rest after this rally is inevitable. The $3,700 level seems possible in some scenarios, although the main expectation is a horizontal and cautious move in the range of $3,300—3,500.

Investor's Hesitation: Calm Storm or New Peak?

The market is now governed not only by numbers, but also by emotions. As scenarios for the future of gold take shape, there is only one question in investors' minds: “What happens after here?” While some are preparing for a profit realization, others predict gold could strike again in the second half with a new geopolitical break. A drop below $3,000 is still a distant prospect for many investors. But even if it falls, it is considered certain that this will trigger a new wave of accumulation. In this turbulent table, ounces of gold as well as grams of gold will continue to maintain its strategic value, depending on both dollar/TL and domestic market sentiment.

🧠 Expert Review

In the gold market, the second half of 2025 can be a complex period, oscillating between the echoes of the past and the uncertainty of the future. Even if geopolitical tension subsides, the cautious positions of central banks and the lack of market confidence will keep alive interest. Short-term fluctuations can be expected, but these declines can translate into opportunities that can be exploited in the medium and long term.

🛑 Disclaimer

This content is created by the Investment Desk and does not constitute investment advice. You should make your decisions based on your own research and expert advisors.

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