Markets Today: Inflation Data and Central Bank Decisions

Markets Today: December 19, 2025

Global market pricing continues to be shaped around decisions of central banks and inflation data. In particular, the inflation data released for November in the US has laid the groundwork for a broader analysis of the economy.

US Inflation Data and Its Effects

The headline CPI for November was announced at 2.7% year-on-year, while the core CPI was reported at 2.6%. Despite data collection disruptions during the government shutdown, these figures indicate a cooling in inflation. This situation led to a pullback in yields in the global bond markets and a recovery in risk appetite.

Japan's Interest Rate Decision

The Bank of Japan raised its policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.75% in its final meeting of the year. This decision marks the highest level reached in nearly 30 years. However, the focus in the markets is currently on the pace of future rate hikes and the final level.

European Central Bank's Growth Forecasts

The European Central Bank made limited upward revisions to its growth and inflation forecasts while keeping interest rates unchanged. The ECB emphasized that economic growth would stem from domestic demand but warned of uncertainties in global trade.

Bank of England and Expectations

The Bank of England lowered its policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%. BoE Governor Bailey expressed satisfaction with progress in inflation and indicated that gradual rate cuts would continue in the process.

Commodity Market Situation

In the commodities sector, short-term profit-taking was observed in precious metals following the inflation data. Gold prices hovered near historical highs, while silver maintained its strong performance. Oil prices experienced a limited downward trend due to peace expectations related to the Russia-Ukraine war.

BIST 100 Current Situation

Domestically, the BIST 100 index completed its fourth trading day of the week with a limited bullish outlook. The index closed at 11,335 points, up 0.43%. Purchases from the 11,250 level throughout the day supported the index. Investors expect to start the new day with a volatile trend alongside the positive atmosphere in global markets.

Macroeconomic Developments

To ensure fiscal stability, the leading indicators mentioned in the Central Bank's published Monetary Policy Committee summary indicate a moderate outlook for December inflation. The rate of increase in rental prices is slowing down, while the deterioration in market expectations is being monitored closely.

Highlighted Stocks

• Turkish Gold Enterprises (TRALT)
• TR Anadolu Metal Mining (TRMET)

The information provided here does not constitute investment advice.