Critical Data to Review Before the Market Opens

Critical Data to Review Before the Market Opens

Global markets have started the new week with a weak risk appetite. US futures indices have been under pressure since the Asian session, and a generally negative trend has been observed in European and Asian stock markets as well. This situation is attributed to President Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh for the Fed chair, which has increased uncertainties in monetary policies, and the CME tightening margin requirements in futures trading. The process of unwinding leveraged positions and fluctuations in geopolitical risk perception also support a cautious stance in the markets.

Precious Metals and Oil Market

In precious metals, following a significant and prolonged rise, considerable pullbacks have been seen due to forced position closures and profit realizations. Particularly in gold and silver price movements, while influenced by geopolitical risks and dynamics questioning the independence of the Fed, it appears that a price stabilization process is underway due to excessive crowding.

Oil prices began the week with a decline, as part of the geopolitical risk premium has receded. The fact that OPEC+ has made no changes to its production for March has increased market sensitivity to potential news from the US-Iran front.

Macroeconomic Data and Borsa Istanbul

This week, US employment data, PMI indicators, and the interest rate decisions of the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are highlighted. Depending on the results of the US employment data, an increase in volatility in the dollar, bond yields, and risky assets is expected. A strengthening dollar has the potential to exert pressure on precious metals.

Borsa Istanbul, on the other hand, completed the last trading day of last week with a limited increase, showing a volatile trend. The performance of the BIST 100 index since the beginning of the year is supported by the interest of foreign investors. However, there is also a scenario where profit realizations may occur due to technical indicators approaching overbought regions and a weakening of global risk appetite in the short term.

On a technical basis, the inflation rate announced by the Istanbul Chamber of Commerce for January showed a significant increase of 4.56%, aligning with the Central Bank's volatility warnings. The market's agenda will be shaped by the official CPI data to be announced by TurkStat tomorrow.