Kardemir Karabük Demir Çelik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.Ş. (KRDMD) enters the second quarter of 2025 after a weak first quarter performance. The company in the first three months of the year Net loss TL 1.48 billion He explained that it had negatively affected expectations for investors. Therefore, the second quarter results are critical to both seeing the company's recovery potential and assessing the overall trend in the steel sector.

Business Investment's 2Q25 Forecast for Kardemir: Revenue and EBITDA Positive, Net Profit Limited

According to information on Rota Borsa, the company that shared the first balance sheet expectation for Kardemir was İş İzım. The institution, Kardemir's 14.396 billion TL revenue He expects to explain. This figure points to positive growth, albeit at a lower rate compared to the same period last year. However, the expectation of the company's EBITDA 1.161 billion TL While limited to, the net profit forecast is only 61 million TL at the level.

These data indicate that Kardemir's profitability from its operational activities is still low and that a strong balance sheet recovery will be spread over time. The EBITDA margin is expected to be around 8%, while this rate remains below the sector averages. In particular, it is stated that energy costs and the fluctuation in iron ore prices seriously affect the profitability of the company.

Causes of Weak Net Profit: Global Demand and Costs

The slowdown in the construction and automotive sectors around the world in the first half of the year dragged down steel demand. This has negatively affected the sales volume and pricing power of integrated steel producers such as Kardemir. In addition, high gas and electricity costs are causing gross margins to decline, while investment spending is also reportedly putting temporary pressure on cash flow.

But still, the possibility of Kardemir declaring a positive net profit could be a psychologically important signal of recovery after the loss in the first quarter. The company's low indebtedness and strong equity structure create a protective buffer for long-term investors.

Technical Outlook and Expectations

According to pre-balance sheet technical indicators, KRDMD stock fluctuates in the range of 29—30 TL. The share price has become sensitive to both the sectoral recovery and possible post-balance sheet announcements (dividend policy, investment plan, production capacity, etc.). According to analysts, the limited profit to be announced in the second quarter could contribute to the gradual improvement of negative perception in the first quarter, although it does not create a big jump on the stock.

In general terms, Kardemir continues to experience volatile profit periods as a player in a high-fixed cost sector. However, the return of net profit to positive could lead to the second half of 2025 on a stronger balance sheet basis.