Geopolitical developments shape economic forecasts.

The Effects of Geopolitics on Global Economy

The Chief Economist of AXA Group, Gilles Moec, emphasized the importance of geopolitical developments and global economic risks during the World Economic Forum's (WEF) Davos 56th Annual Meetings.

Trade Wars and Europe's Stance

Moec noted that the trade wars triggered by the United States' customs tariffs caused serious economic shocks worldwide last year, stating that 2026 has begun with a new potential trade tension between Europe and the United States. He mentioned that Europe remained resilient despite the shocks in 2025, saying, "Companies are now striving to overcome the upheavals of the past, but they are once again facing uncertainties at the beginning of 2026."

Economic Uncertainty and Supply Chain Issues

Moec remarked that geopolitics is at the center of economic forecasts, increasing the risks to companies' supply chains. "No company can be completely safe in terms of supply chains. This situation is becoming a structural problem affecting all kinds of economic decisions." he stated.

Public Debt and Developments in the Technology Sector

Additionally, Moec raised concerns about the rise in public debts as well as the valuations of technology companies. He pointed out that many technology companies have gone into debt due to high financing needs, stating, "This situation is changing the valuation of companies compared to previous benchmarks."

Europe's Technological Competition and Artificial Intelligence

Moec pointed out that Europe possesses some artificial intelligence producers but is lagging behind in leadership in this area. "Europe needs to quickly adapt to these technologies and seize the opportunity for economic transformation." he emphasized the necessity for Europe to rapidly focus on these areas in the coming years.

Data Sharing and Sovereignty Issues

Finally, Moec added that it is essential for Europe to take active steps regarding data sovereignty and data sharing, stating that developments in this area are of great importance.