Fed and TCMB Decisions: The Pulse of the Markets and Expectations

Current Situation in Global Markets

In global markets, the fact that the ADP employment data came in below expectations has increased the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Fed. This situation has led to the continued positive horizontal movement of indices. On the other hand, despite the lowest inflation data seen in recent months on Borsa Istanbul, profit-taking has been observed. In the new week, the decisions to be made by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB) will be critical for the markets.

Key Data from Last Week

• Inflation Data: In Turkey, November inflation rose by 0.87% month-on-month, coming in below the 1.25% expectation. Annual inflation declined from 32.87% to 31.07%, creating a positive impact in the market.
• Growth Data: The Turkish economy grew by 3.7% in the third quarter of the year, falling short of the 4.2% expectation.
• US Employment Data: In September, the core personal consumption expenditures data declined to 2.8%. However, in November, the ADP non-farm employment data unexpectedly dropped by 32,000 people, indicating a continued weakening in the labor market.
• Cryptocurrency Market: Bitcoin exhibited a horizontal trend with a 1.5% decrease over the week, while the total value of cryptocurrency assets fell by 1.8%.

Investment Opportunities and Analysis

Although daily fluctuations continue in the stock market, true value emerges in strong and resilient stocks. As we approach 2026, aspects investors should pay attention to include evaluating structural resilience and potential rather than price movements. Stocks with high trading volume that have maintained positive returns since the beginning of the year are now attracting more attention.

High liquidity reduces investors' desire to exit the market, and the maintenance of positive returns indicates that demand continues despite selling pressure. The upward potential supported by analyst expectations creates a stronger story.

BlackRock's 2026 Predictions

In BlackRock's 2026 report, it is expected that investors will turn to alternative assets, especially Bitcoin, due to the weakening of the US economy and rising federal debt levels. Larry Fink states that tokenization is the future of finance and emphasizes that Bitcoin has now become an integral part of modern investment portfolios. BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF, IBIT, manages approximately $70 billion in assets.

Current Developments in the Markets

Significant moves came from US-based companies. Nvidia purchased $2 billion worth of Synopsys shares, while Microsoft saw a decline in sales quotas for its artificial intelligence software. Koç Holding made a significant acquisition, and Mia Technology signed an international project. Additionally, Grayscale and other cryptocurrency asset management companies are making positive predictions about the future of Bitcoin.

Analyst Recommendations

Another aspect investors should pay attention to is analyst recommendations. For example, Morgan Stanley upgraded Vertex's rating and raised its target price to $516. Additionally, some companies' senior executives conducted insider trading.

As market activity continues, there are many developments that investors need to closely follow. The decisions of the TCMB and the Fed in the new week will determine the direction of the market.