Stock Market Crisis Indicators: Why Are We Not Too Early?

Rise of Tech Giants and Market Concerns

In today’s financial environment, the technology giants' market values reaching record levels and their massive spending in the field of artificial intelligence are causing significant concern in global markets. However, renowned economist Owen Lamont emphasizes that despite appearing risky, there is still no bubble forming in the stock market.

The "Smart Money" Trusted by Small Investors

According to Lamont, the current observations of “big investors” and “company owners” in the market indicate that they have not yet withdrawn their investments. This suggests that signs of a bubble have not emerged. The economist points out that the most important criterion for clearly defining a stock market bubble is the haste of company executives to sell their shares to the public. However, the absence of such a wave of share sales indicates that there are no signs of a market collapse yet.

Share Buybacks by Companies

In recent years, U.S. companies have conducted approximately $1 trillion in share buybacks. Lamont summarizes this situation: "Companies are not selling shares; they are buying them back. This indicates that prices have not yet reached their peak." Thus, critical elements that could be seen as signs of a crisis in the markets remain incomplete.

Bubble Criteria and Comparison to the Past

The economist uses four fundamental criteria to determine whether a bubble exists: excessive prices, exaggerated expectations, cash inflow, and new share issuance. Although prices are high today, no new share sales have taken place. Lamont compares the current situation with past major crises, stating that the market is not at a dangerous stage similar to the Japan bubble or the dot-com crisis. Additionally, the lack of major fraud incidents also stands out as a critical indicator.

Future Warning for Investors: 2026

So, when will this bubble peak? Lamont suggests that investors should pay attention to the year 2026. Particularly, the decision of giants like SpaceX and OpenAI to go public, along with other companies potentially joining this process, could be a sign that large investors are abandoning ship. Moreover, the expectation of record numbers of initial public offerings by major financial institutions for 2026 strengthens this possibility.