Bitcoin is rising, but winter may be coming.

In recent days, despite the Bitcoin price continuing to remain at high levels, the internal dynamics of the market indicate that it may be entering a new "winter" phase. The recent pullback in the cryptocurrency market, while still considered a healthy correction by many investors, has led to a psychological distance in approaching the perception of "entering winter again," given the freshness of the severe collapse experienced in 2022.

Especially spot Bitcoin ETFs, increasing institutional participation, and evolving infrastructure are strengthening the perception that the current cycle is different from the past. However, historically, "winter" periods are not solely defined by price drops. The main determining factors are the supply-demand balance, capital flows, and fractures in market psychology. At this point, a striking piece of data is that the Crypto Fear & Greed Index is at a level of 14, which is in the "Extreme Fear" zone. Despite high prices, the sharp deterioration in sentiment resembles the structure seen before winters in past cycles.

Capital flows also support this picture. Although approximately $10 billion in inflows in 2024 has grown the market cap, a subsequent observation of a decline in total market cap as a result of inflows exceeding $300 billion in 2025 indicates that structural selling pressure continues. This situation shows that the impact of capital entering the market has been balanced by distribution. On-chain profit data also signals similarly. The decrease in realized profit amounts despite high prices indicates that the internal dynamics are weakening. Such divergences are typically observed in late cycle stages or at the beginning of winter.

The current fundamental scenario suggests that while Bitcoin has not yet been confirmed by price, it may structurally be approaching a winter phase. For this view to change, ETF inflows need to stabilize and strengthen, and on-chain distribution pressure must clearly decrease. Otherwise, the high price level may continue to mask the internal fractures of the market for some time.