Has Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycles Come to an End?

Recently, the price movements of Bitcoin have excited investors significantly. The cryptocurrency reaching $123,850 with a notable increase of 11.5% in the past week has caught the attention of market experts. However, opinions are divided on whether this increase is sustainable.

Saad Ahmed, Head of Asia-Pacific at the Gemini cryptocurrency exchange, stated that Bitcoin's past four-year cycles may not repeat in the same way. In an interview with Cointelegraph, Ahmed said, "The basis of these cycles is human emotions. When people become overly excited and take too much risk, a bubble forms, then a crash occurs, and the market returns to equilibrium." In other words, he expressed that human psychology will continue to sustain these cycles.

The increasing weight of institutional investors in the market may not eliminate these cycles completely but can reduce volatility. Ahmed remarked, “Even if fluctuations decrease, as long as human psychology is at play, some kind of cycle will inevitably occur.”

Cryptocurrency analyst Rekt Capital suggested that if Bitcoin's post-halving cycle continues similarly to 2020, the peak could be seen in October of this year. He predicted that approximately 550 days after the halving event scheduled for April 2024, the accumulation phase could represent the final stage of price increase. Additionally, data platform CoinGlass reported that Bitcoin has historically provided an average return of 79.39% in its strongest quarter, the fourth quarter.

On the other hand, Matt Hougan, Director of Investments at Bitwise, pointed out that Bitcoin's bullish cycle is weakening, and he expects an increase in the year 2026. This indicates that traditional cycles may no longer hold validity.

In conclusion, Bitcoin investors should be cautious during critical periods. It should not be forgotten that October may offer investment opportunities alongside a potential price peak.