Is the Bitcoin Death Cross a Delayed Signal?

Recently, the fluctuations in the price of Bitcoin (BTC) continue to attract the attention of investors. The price of Bitcoin has pulled back by 25% after reaching approximately $126,000 in October. This process has been ongoing for about 41 days, and the price has fallen below the 50-day average of $110,669. It is now seen that this average is about to fall just above the 200-day average of $110,459. The death cross, considered a negative signal in technical analysis, has re-emerged at this point.

However, according to Glassnode data, this indication has appeared at the dip levels in every cycle in this case. Previously, after the price of Bitcoin dropped to $25,000 in September 2023, it showed a recovery up to $49,000 in August 2024. In another example, amid uncertainties regarding trading tariffs in April 2025, the price formed a bottom just below $75,000. Currently, the price has declined to around $94,000, drawing attention as it resembles previous examples with dip levels before the crossing occurs.

Looking at the recent correction, the April 2025 correction was deeper and lasted longer; at that time, the price lost 30% of its value compared to the January peak and moved downward for about 79 days. Today's decline is around 25%, and the duration has been recorded at 41 days. In this case, the possibility of the price dropping further is on the table.

Furthermore, another factor putting pressure on the market is the reopening of the United States government on November 12. A similar process occurred in 2019, during which the price of Bitcoin dropped by more than 9% within five days after the government reopened. However, the losses were compensated for about two weeks later. This time, the post-opening drop reached up to 10%, and investors are eagerly watching whether a similar recovery process will occur.

In conclusion, the current situation exhibits a similar pattern in terms of both technical indicators and historical price behaviors. The impending death cross can be viewed as a delayed alarm, and all eyes are on the potential indication of a dip region, just like in previous cycles.