Is a New Rally in Bitcoin Starting, or Has Red October Begun?

Recently, the volatility of Bitcoin prices has attracted investors' attention. According to a report by QCP Capital, Bitcoin (BTC) may have entered a situation dubbed 'the first red October' by declining from 110 thousand dollars to 107 thousand dollars in October. This is recorded as the first negative October close seen since 2018.

Analysts suggest that despite an estimated 400 thousand Bitcoin selling pressure, the fact that the price remains above 100 thousand dollars indicates a strong potential for bottom formation in the markets. Cryptocurrency investors are evaluating the possibility of market recovery and entering a new bull trend with this downturn.

QCP also draws attention to global developments, emphasizing that trade talks between the US and China could serve as a morale boost for the crypto market. The upcoming Trump-Xi summit expected on Thursday, and the potential signing of a trade agreement could significantly impact the short-term direction of the crypto markets.

Moreover, data suggesting the US Federal Reserve (Fed) may end its long-standing monetary tightening program could increase investors' interest in riskier assets. In this context, the Fed's restricted access to data emerges as another factor creating uncertainty in the market. Especially as the US government shutdown surpasses its 26th day, accessing economic data has become challenging.

As investors focus on major technology companies' announcements, they are also trying to find direction in the crypto market. QCP notes that the risk curves in the Bitcoin and Ethereum options markets have neutralized, indicating that investors are no longer as defensive as before, while expressing that it is too early for a new bull trend without Bitcoin surpassing 116 thousand dollars again.

In conclusion, it is expected that the crypto market will exhibit a sideways trend in the short term, influenced by numerous macro catalysts. Investors should keep in mind the critical price levels and market dynamics they need to monitor during this process.