The risk of a government shutdown in the U.S. has risen to 75%.

The Likelihood of a U.S. Government Shutdown Is Rising

The risk of a federal government shutdown in the U.S. is back in focus, as prediction markets indicate that this possibility is rapidly increasing. According to data from Kalshi and Polymarket, the likelihood of a government shutdown this week has risen above 75%. This rate was only at 10% last Saturday.

Immigration Enforcement and Recent Developments

The sudden increase in risk follows the death of a 37-year-old man during an immigration enforcement operation by federal law enforcement in Minneapolis. This incident has led Democratic representatives to harden their stance against providing additional funding for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) operations.

Lack of Democratic Budget Support

Many Democratic senators, led by Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar, have announced that they will not support a budget package that includes additional funds for ICE and encompasses the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). The current budget package is still under review in the Senate.

Possible Impacts

If the budget does not pass without Democratic support, there is a risk of a temporary halt to federal government operations. This situation could affect public services and social welfare programs and may have significant implications, particularly for economic stability.