October 15: What's Happening in Global Markets?

Careful Start in Global Markets

Global markets started the week with a cautious tone. The rekindling of the trade war between the US and China has had a negative impact on investors. Both countries have decided to impose reciprocal additional port fees, escalating the tension. This tension deepened further as the Trump administration considered suspending cooking oil trade in response to China halting soybean purchases from the US.

Fed and Economic Developments

However, despite these negative developments, statements from Fed Chair Jerome Powell provided some recovery in the indices. Powell highlighted the weaknesses in the employment market and indicated that the balance sheet reduction process could come to an end soon. Meanwhile, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond fell below 4%, and gold prices saw a new peak, exceeding $4,200.

Situation in Europe and the Turkish Economy

In Europe, the Germany ZEW index fell short of expectations. European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde stated that it is too early to say that interest rate cuts have come to an end. Additionally, it is noted that there will be a confidence vote for Prime Minister Lecornu in France.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its global growth forecast for this year from 3% to 3.2%. The forecasts for Turkey's economy for 2025 have also been revised to the range of 3.5% to 3.7%.

Market Movements in Borsa Istanbul and VIOP

Borsa Istanbul lost value due to global selling pressure and internal political uncertainties. The BIST 100 index closed down 2.27% at 10,316 points, while more moderate declines in stocks with significant weight in the index, such as ASELS and BIMAS, limited this movement. 10,300 had positioned itself as a critical support zone over the past year. Additionally, it had moved above the 144-day exponential moving average. While a rebound can be expected from here, a downward breakout could create a new support level at 9,800.

The VIOP started the morning session with a 0.10% increase. Today, the budget balance for September and the August data on services and construction production will be taken into account.

Developments Catching Investors' Attention

On the other hand, it is anticipated that investors looking to liquidate their positions on Friday may cause increased volatility in the market. TCELL, which has recorded a nearly 7% drop before the 5G auction scheduled for tomorrow, will be on investors' watchlist.

Another focal point for investors will be the interest rate decision from the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB) to be announced next week. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data coming in higher than expected signals a slowdown in the disinflation process, increasing expectations that the Central Bank could implement a limited interest rate cut.

It is expected that market caution will continue due to global risks and the internal political agenda.