Bloomberg HT's TCMB October Interest Rate Survey: What are the Expectations?

Bloomberg HT October TCMB Interest Rate Survey Results

The results of the October Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB) interest rate decision survey conducted by Bloomberg HT have been announced. A total of 18 financial institutions responded to the survey.

Interest Rate Cut Expectations

According to the median prediction of participating institutions, the market expects the TCMB to reduce the one-week repo auction interest rate by 150 basis points to 39 percent at its meeting on October 23.

Interest Rate Forecast Ranges

The lowest expected weekly repo interest rate in October is projected to be 38.5%, while the highest expectation reached 40.5% percent. Furthermore, four survey participants anticipate that the Central Bank will skip the October meeting.

Year-End Interest Rate Expectations

The median policy rate expectation for year-end was set at 37.5%. The lowest year-end forecast is 36%, and the highest forecast is at 39% percent.

2026 Interest Rate Forecasts

The year-end interest rate forecasts for 2026 were determined by survey participants to be 28%, with the highest expectation at 31% and the lowest at 25% percent.

Previous TCMB Interest Rate Decisions

In its September meeting, the TCMB lowered the policy rate by 250 basis points to 40.50%, in line with market expectations.