What is the November Rally that investors are patiently waiting for?

November: Historical Opportunities for Investors

November is defined as one of the most remarkable periods in stock market history. Both domestic and international markets statistically show a positive trend in this month, due to seasonal and psychological factors. Stock indices in the USA, Europe, Asia, and Turkey offer opportunities to investors in November.

Historical Data and Investor Psychology

According to research by Bank of America, the S&P 500 index has shown a 59% probability of rising in November since 1927, with an average increase of 1%. However, especially in recent years, the relationship with technology stocks has made this rise even more pronounced. The Nasdaq 100 index has provided an average return of 2.2% in November over the last 20 years, while in the last five years, this figure has risen to 6.83%.

November Rally and Consumer Spending

November also marks the beginning of the period known as the Christmas rally. As consumers prepare for holiday season spending, this creates a strong sales momentum in the markets. Consumer-focused sectors, technology stocks, and industrial companies have historically stood out with positive pricing during this period. According to Bank of America data, stocks related to consumer spending average a 3.14% increase in November, technology stocks by 3.1%, healthcare sector by 2.5%, and industrial stocks by 3.02%.

The November Storm in Borsa Istanbul

A similar seasonality is observed in Borsa Istanbul. The BIST 100 index has increased by an average of 14.81% in November over the last five years, indicating the strongest period of the year. This rise is closely related to the increasing risk appetite in the second half of the year, declining interest rate expectations, and a strong earnings season. As investors reassess their positions following the volatility in October, a new wave of optimism emerges in November.

In Conclusion

November is a period where both local and global data come together, allowing investors to achieve the highest return potential with effective strategies. However, this process is often interrupted by corrections and fluctuations. For investors, purchases made in November usually yield profits until the first weeks of the new year.