What Investors Need to Know: December 22 Market Analysis

Critical Developments During Market Opening Period

Global markets are starting a new week with geopolitical risks. The U.S. seizing a Venezuelan oil tanker has intensified pressure on energy resources, while rising tensions between Israel and Iran have triggered demand for precious metals. Brent crude oil has surpassed the resistance level of $60.57, settling above $61, while WTI crude has risen to $57, causing volatility in energy markets.

Demand for Safe Havens is Increasing

Gold and silver, known as safe havens, continue to attract investors' interest. As of this morning, spot gold reached a record level of $4,397. Similarly, spot silver climbed to $69.43, achieving a new peak.

Fed Messages and Europe's Economic Outlook

Statements from the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) indicate that a cautious stance in the markets continues. Fed member Hammack highlighted the inflation risks, emphasizing that interest rates should remain stable for a while. The European Central Bank's (ECB) strict stance on inflation, combined with rising inflation in the service sector and high wages, is drawing attention in the markets.

BIST 100 and Local Developments

Domestically, the BIST 100 index concluded the week with a volatile but balanced trend. The index closed at 11,341 points, up by 0.06%, while the pullback in the bond markets caused limited declines in the domestic yield curve. Turkey’s 5-year CDS premium has retreated to the 206 level, indicating an improvement in risk perception.

Change in Qualified Investor Limit

The decision taken on Friday to raise the qualified investor limit from 1 million TL to 10 million TL may restrict access to alternative investment products. This situation could affect the distribution of fund flows in the medium term. However, the short-term impact on the equity market appears limited; it can be monitored as a situation that may create change.

Current Situation in the Currency Market

In the currency market, there is a gradual upward trend in USD/TRY. Despite the weakness in the dollar index, the dynamics of the currency market are apparent. The gold front is also active with strong spot prices, while the gram gold is testing new peaks, surpassing 6,000 TL.

Recent Developments and Expectations

As the year-end approaches, a decline in trading volumes is anticipated. However, technical levels and geopolitical developments will continue to influence the markets. The U.S. 3Q GDP data and PCE figures to be announced tomorrow could be decisive for investors.