"Is a Bull Market Collapse Near on Wall Street? Analysis"

Bull Market and Economic Uncertainties

The AI-driven bull market in global markets has been displaying a volatile trend since November. In the past week, the S&P 500 Index attracted attention with a flat closing. However, the index's third pullback in the past five weeks in the range of %3-4 signals alarming signs in the market. Two bottom tests at the 6,730 point level indicate a retest of the strong resistance zone reached in September.

Questions on AI Investments

The fluctuations in the markets have raised concerns about whether AI investments can provide sustainable returns in the future. The rise in debt levels in data centers brings past credit crises to mind. Expectations of interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) have weakened following hawkish statements from some members. Investors’ expectations regarding tax advantages and deregulation for the year 2026 are also becoming uncertain.

Nvidia and Market Peak Discussions

Nvidia's inability to surpass the $200 and $5 trillion market cap thresholds has brought back Michael Burry's warnings about AI. Additionally, Burry's closure of his hedge fund and Warren Buffett's recent letter have intensified discussions among investors regarding 'peak signals.' The forward price/earnings ratio of the Nasdaq 100 has decreased recently, fueling concerns.

Investor Reactions and Sector Dynamics

As selling waves continue in technology stocks, the long-underperforming healthcare sector has started to gain momentum with drug price agreements. Although more than a third of S&P 500 companies have raised their forecasts in recent earnings reports, the market is still not free from excesses. Debates on whether AI investments are a bubble continue. Furthermore, the recent ~25% decrease in Bitcoin has negatively impacted investors' risk appetite.

Conclusion and Expectations

Current indicators suggest that the ongoing decline may not be the beginning of a major crash, but investors need to be cautious. Major market peaks often begin with short and shallow corrections. Therefore, closely monitoring the current fluctuations is of great importance in making strategic decisions.